Let us hope the NDP surges to victory finally sweeping the rotten PC dynasty into the dustbin of history.  I’m still very wary though, we might need round “N” of PC guided political seppuku, as 41 years of one party rule might not be enough.

Polls

From the CBC

Of course, this is all based on the premise that the polls are accurately gauging the state of the race in Alberta. With the 2012 debacle still in everyone’s mind, that is a risky proposition. No wonder, then, that many Albertans think the PCs will still win.

While voters will have the final word on the accuracy of the polls, there is good reason to doubt that the same phenomenon that saved Alison Redford in 2012 will work in Prentice’s favour in 2015.

Only two parties, Redford’s PCs and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose, were in the running in the last election. And with both parties being adjacent to one another on the political spectrum, a swing from Wildrose to the Tories in the final days was hardly unimaginable. The PCs may have also benefited from Liberal voters moving over to support a centrist like Redford to block a right-wing Wildrose government.

But those dynamics are no longer at play. There are now three parties in the running, and their supporters do not so easily move from one party to another. If there is a shift in the final days to block one party, it is not so clear that the move would occur all in the same direction as it did in 2012. In many parts of the province, the NDP has become a better option to block Wildrose than the PCs. Similarly, any move to block the NDP might go to Wildrose rather than the Tories.

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